Julia Galef is co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality. She is a writer and public speaker on the topics of rationality, science, technology, and design.

  • Decisive

    Chip and Dan Heath, the bestselling authors of Switch and Made to Stick, tackle one of the most critical topics in our work and personal lives: how to make better decisions.,Research in psychology has revealed that our decisions are disrupted by an array of biases and irrationalities: We???re overconfident. We seek out information that supports us and downplay information that doesn???t. We get distracted by short-term emotions. When it comes to making choices, it seems, our brains are flawed instruments. Unfortunately, merely being aware of these shortcomings doesn???t fix the problem, any more than knowing that we are nearsighted helps us to see. The real question is: How can we do better?,In Decisive, the Heaths, based on an exhaustive study of the decision-making literature, introduce a four-step process designed to counteract these biases. Written in an engaging and compulsively readable style, Decisive takes readers on an unforgettable journey, from a rock star???s ingenious decision-making trick to a CEO???s disastrous acquisition, to a single question that can often resolve thorny personal decisions.,Along the way, we learn the answers to critical questions like these: How can we stop the cycle of agonizing over our decisions? How can we make group decisions without destructive politics? And how can we ensure that we don???t overlook precious opportunities to change our course?,Decisive is the Heath brothers??? most powerful???and important???book yet, offering fresh strategies and practical tools enabling us to make better choices. Because the right decision, at the right moment, can make all the difference.

  • How to Measure Anything

    Now updated with new measurement methods and new examples, How to Measure Anything shows managers how to inform themselves in order to make less risky, more profitable business decisions,This insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measure those things in your own business, government agency or other organization that, until now, you may have considered “immeasurable,” including customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI.,Adds new measurement methods, showing how they can be applied to a variety of areas such as risk management and customer satisfaction,Simplifies overall content while still making the more technical applications available to those readers who want to dig deeper,Continues to boldly assert that any perception of “immeasurability” is based on certain popular misconceptions about measurement and measurement methods,Shows the common reasoning for calling something immeasurable, and sets out to correct those ideas,Offers practical methods for measuring a variety of “intangibles”,Provides an online database (www.howtomeasureanything.com) of downloadable, practical examples worked out in detailed spreadsheets,Written by recognized expert Douglas Hubbard???creator of Applied Information Economics???How to Measure Anything, Third Edition illustrates how the author has used his approach across various industries and how any problem, no matter how difficult, ill defined, or uncertain can lend itself to measurement using proven methods.

  • Superforecasting

    NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER.,???The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow.??????Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal,Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week???s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts??? predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?,In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people???including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer???who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They???ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They???ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are “superforecasters.”,In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden???s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn???t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.,Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future???whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life???and is destined to become a modern classic.